Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
